Scientists predict that our planet, which is already experiencing excessive heat, is on track to surpass a crucial temperature threshold for the first time in the coming years.
According to researchers, there is a 66% likelihood of exceeding the 1.5°C global warming limit between now and 2027. This probability is increasing due to human-generated emissions and anticipated shifts in weather patterns this summer.
While breaching the limit would be concerning, scientists emphasize that it would likely be temporary in nature. The surpassing of the threshold would signify that the world is 1.5°C warmer than it was in the latter half of the 19th Century, before industrialization significantly escalated fossil fuel emissions.
Even a brief breach of the limit raises concerns as it indicates an acceleration of warming rather than a slowdown. The 1.5°C target has become emblematic of global climate change negotiations, with countries pledging to make efforts to limit temperature increases in line with the 2015 Paris agreement.
Should the world consistently exceed the 1.5°C limit over a decade or two, the repercussions of warming, such as longer heatwaves, more severe storms, and increased wildfires, would be far more pronounced.
However, surpassing the threshold in one of the upcoming years does not imply that the Paris agreement’s goal has been shattered. Scientists emphasize that there is still time to mitigate global warming by significantly reducing emissions.